Dazed, I stared in awe as the number of ballot papers in the UKIP piles grew ever larger, in some cases, dwarfing those of at least one of the other three main political parties. I was informed that the previous count for the county council elections had welcomed just a handful of purple badge wearing guests, but this year that number was several times higher. What made this sudden shift all the more shocking was that no one I had spoken to that day on the doorstep had declared that they were voting UKIP.
So how did a party which had rested on the political side-lines only a few years before average around 26% of the vote around the country and win 150 seats? In nearby Eastleigh, UKIP managed to secure three out of the town’s seven seats, while they secured second place in all but one of Basingstoke’s divisions.
To make matters worse, UKIP achieved this by fielding a candidate (David Watson) who remained on holiday in Thailand, sent out just one leaflet, and did not even bother to knock on a single door. Generally, they did not deviate from their obsession with leaving the EU and for the most part ignored local issues. However, perhaps even more worrying is that two candidates were purple Tories (Harry Robinson and Philip heath), former Conservatives who were hung out to dry by their party, and have returned, ever so slightly disgruntled, for revenge.
Disillusion with mainstream political parties is perhaps the most obvious reason for UKIP’s success. Many merely see Westminster as the exclusive home of white, middle-aged male politicians who they believe presided over the economic downturn and failed to keep their promises. These feelings were heightened after the last general elections, when the Liberal Democrats fell short of adhering to the majority of their manifesto and were most notably lampooned for overseeing the raising of tuition fees.
This disenchantment has ultimately led to the rebirth of the protest vote. While door knocking in Eastleigh I came across numerous residents, who, regardless of their previous political affiliations, had voted UKIP in the recent by-election. The volume of these protest votes is not a completely uncommon mid-term occurrence, as the electorate can sometimes feel the need to complain when the game-changing general election is not in sight yet. However, in the past, protest votes usually went to one of the main parties not in government, so clearly they too are doing something wrong.
Going back to Eastleigh, I met several residents who had voted UKIP in the by-election who had never previously strayed away from Labour. Although UKIP failed to take a single Labour seat, they reduced the party’s majority in some areas, most noticeably David Milliband’s former constituency of South Shields. Although I later discovered that most of these former Labour voters went purple in temporary protest, I can’t help escape the feeling that perhaps Labour has left working class voters behind in the race to secure the coveted middle ground.
The Conservatives problems are more deep-rooted than simple anti-establishment feeling. Recently, the same-sex marriage bill exposed the slowly growing divide between the party’s right and centre, which has alienated many of the Conservatives more traditional supporters. In addition, the Prime minister’s delayed EU referendum has led many to question how serious he is about it, and whether he will simply use Europe as a bargaining chip come election time.
Personally, I think that one cannot ignore the importance of individual personalities. All three main parties lack a particularly captivating leader, and Nigel Farage has clearly capitalised on this gap in the market with his balance of eye catching quirkiness and grounded respectability. He reminds me somewhat of Boris Johnson in that both are essentially an act that can plead lunacy as soon as they step too far out of line.
It’s impossible to predict whether UKIP will hold up in the next general election or if the public will decide not to waste their vote for a protest. Regardless, all three main political parties will surely have been stirred into action by the recent county council elections.
Firstly, they should head straight for the jugular and dissect UKIP’s so far under-scrutinised policy. They must dispel the myth that leaving the EU is some miracle cure to Britain’s economic problems, and then move onto criticise the party’s proposed defence budget increases and indiscriminate tax cuts, both policies that would inevitably swell the country’s deficit.
Unfortunately, The Conservatives may be forced to bring forward their EU referendum, and will definitely have to repair the rift between the right and centre. Labour can represent both working and middle class voters, and should emphasize the fact that a protest vote for UKIP is essentially a vote for even more right-wing Tories. As for the Liberal Democrats, well, frankly I’m not sure that anyone can solve their problems.